Archive for July, 2007

Pascal’s Wager

July 30th, 2007

At the front of the line was a man in a sharp suit. When he got to the gate, the guard, an angel, agreed that he had lived a good life, but asked him why he had not followed some of God’s laws. The man shuffled, embarrassed, before finally admitting that he’d been an atheist. He felt a bit stupid.
“Oh,” said the angel, “fair enough, then,” and opened the great gate before him. The atheist was surprised to be entering Heaven. The line advanced by one, and another man reached the front.
All in all, he was beginning to feel pretty confident. He’d lived a good life, and believed, and he’d followed all of God’s rules. He was a shoe-in.
“Ah,” the guard said, reading his name from the list and recognising it immediately, “Blaise Pascal. Yes, we’ve been looking forward to this.”
“As have I,” Pascal said, proudly.
The angel’s face twisted into the expression a mother might use to quiz a boy who thought she’d be pleased that he’d painted the sofa. “Really?” Pascal paused, confused, and the guard continued, “Only it says here that God thinks you’re trying to pull a fast one on him.”
“What?”
“This ‘wager’ of yours. God isn’t a mind-reader, you know. Free will and all that. He doesn’t know if you believe or not, not really, and your little numbers game is really just an argument to say you believe. You’re trying to con God into letting you in.”
“I’m not! I really, truly believe!”
“How do I know you’re not just saying that to get in, that you haven’t been saying that all along. That’s what you’re little wager would advise, isn’t it, if you didn’t really believe?”
“I never said anything about pretending to believe. I said you should believe!”
“To believe as a choice, disregarding evidence?”
“Yes!” Pascal said, relieved that the angel understood.
“Yes,” said the guard, “we thought you might say something like that. So we’ve prepared a little test…”

Atheists?” said the demon, “there certainly aren’t any atheists in Hell.”
“But,” he started, starting to question his beliefs now, on his first day in Hell, when one might reasonably argue it was a tad on the late side, “all they had to do was believe! How hard is that?”
The demon made a noise somewhere between “oh?” and “hmm,” in the patient manner of one who’d been going over this for centuries and didn’t imagine having to stop soon. “But they didn’t believe in Hell either. It would seem a bit harsh to expect them to follow rules set out by someone they thought was fiction, with a punishment they thought didn’t exist.”
“So what you’re saying is,” he said, watching with trepidation as the demon selected a pointy looking object from a leather roll-up pack and held it over the flames, “that all we had to do to get carte blanche to sin as much as we pleased was to stop believing?”
“That’s right,” the demon said, as it walked behind the lost soul and plunged the instrument into his back (not that he really had such a bodypart any more, of course). “But you’re in luck. God’s laid down a special rule, just for you. To test your little wager. You can go to heaven, if you want to.”
“How?” Pascal shouted, above the pain. Right then and there there was nothing he wouldn’t do to escape the pain.
“Simple,” the demon replied, moving the instrument savagely, “just believe I don’t exist.”
And for a thousand years he tried.
After that he rather gave up. By that stage his tortured soul didn’t seem worth saving anyway.

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Shockingly enough, unlike the entire British media, I do not consider “hyped book being sold way below wholesale price outsells more expensive books which were less hyped” to be big news. So please stop reporting it as such.

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RSS Feeds

July 20th, 2007

The RSS feeds for this site are still a bit broken. I’ve even tried to strip the whole blog back to standard WordPress 2.2,and that seems not to have helped. The Atom feed is broken, and the RSS feed is broken.

But, the RSS2 feed works.

Please use http://www.apathysketchpad.com/blog/feed/rss2/ for all your syndication needs.

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  • There is no way that chickens and pigs could have evolved in such a way that chicken wrapped in bacon tastes so good. Only an intelligent designer could cause this phenomenon.
  • The human ear is shaped to hold a pencil, and yet the pencil was not invented until millenia after the ear supposedly evolved. Only an intelligent designer could have such prescience.
  • There is no evolutionary advantage to spoilt mussels hermetically sealing them to avoid contaminating other foods, and yet they do. An intelligent designer could have made this happen.
  • Evolution should have removed all homosexuals from the gene pool by now. Only an intelligent designer could create such sinful and wicked creatures. (His reasons are His own.)
  • If mankind has really existed for more than 6000 years, then surely they should have grown out of all this childish “religion” by now? Only a young Earth can explain religion.
  • Total morons believe in creationism. Logically, therefore, intelligent people should understand it even better.
  • If people had evolved to be good at passing on their genes, they wouldn’t have their own children murdered the moment they got the chance to do so. Only an intelligent designer can explain mindless brutality. (Honestly, I wouldn’t mind one bit if this kind of crime was punished with the death penalty. The only argument against it is one of “animal cruelty” and the dangerous dogs act sees to that.)

I’ll be honest with you: you might sometimes hear these arguments. I tried, but I’m not sure they’re any sillier than the real ones. I honestly have seen a creationist, apparently quite earnestly, cite some obscure Bible passage and say “go on, explain how that happened”: starting by assuming the Bible to be literally true and from there proving that the Bible is literally true by using the Bible to discount other theories. There’s a redundant step in there somewhere.

If you’ve seen any of these used in earnest, I’d love to hear about it.

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The next person who tells me religion forms a basis for morality gets a punch in the face. Well, no, that’s almost certainly not true, but if they do, I feel it will be justified. This month’s Religious Crackpot Of The Month award goes to the entire Vatican, who are increasingly mad and incredibly dangerous.

Religion forms a basis for rules. Rules can be good or bad. But they aren’t morality. It’s not “moral” to be good to avoid burning forever in hell; it’s selfish. It’s not “moral” to obey some rules to gain access to some paradise afterlife; that’s selfish, too. The religious argument, though, says aha, but you see God created the universe and He gets to decide what’s Moral and what’s Immoral. Therefore, it reasons, if you obey the rules God laid down, you will be acting Morally, and if you don’t, you won’t.

This is slightly stupid, because there’s no actual logical connection between creating the universe and morality. You can’t get from one to the other. It’s also stupid because the rules that religions preach now are, even if we’re generous and grant religion the rather absurd assumption that whoever they believe vreated the universe actually did write their holy books, nothing like the originals. They’re not God’s Word; they’re Chinese Whispers.

Evolution doesn’t favour the most accurate forms, or the most true or the nicest. It favours the ones that survive best. And evolution is an inevitable consequence of any system that allows something to mutate, reproduce, and pass changes onto its offspring. So when a book is copied out, changes are introduced in every generation. When a religion is passed on by word of mouth, changes are introduced. When a text is translated, errors creep in. and all these little changes add up over time, and eventually you end up not with the an accurate reflection of any original work, God’s word or otherwise, but with a very powerful meme which is very good at getting itself passed on, very good at deflecting argument, and very good at sticking in your brain. There is no requirement at all for it to do anything else, so generally it doesn’t.

Of course, it will always keep something moral back, like “Thou Shalt Not Kill”. But not because it’s “moral” or “right” or “God’s Word”. It’s because that’s a good survival trait — it allows people to say things like “this idea forms a basis for morality; look, it preaches not killing”. Big whoop. So does Shazanity.

But I can forgive all that. You can believe that, and I won’t think less of you. It’s very hard to break out of something like religion, and some people get enough support and happiness out of theirs that it might not be a good idea anyway. They’re in a symbiotic relationship with the viral meme that is their religion. What I really don’t understand is Roman Catholics.

Now, as I understand this, and I used to be one and now I have a keen interest in them so I like to think I know at least as much about Catholicism as the average Catholic, a Roman Catholic is basically the same as any other Christian except that in addition to the Bible, they also believe a whole stack of other dogma churned out be the Vatican. For example, they have to believe that God, Jesus and the Holy Spirit are simultaneously three distinct entities and one single entity. This creates a problem, because if you apply set theory, which I’m given to understand is ultimately the root of all mathematics, then you can start from that premise and prove quite trivially that three equals one*. (Mathematics is important to Catholicism because without it Pope Pius I was the same person as Pope Pius III, and that’s just confusing.) So Catholics also have to believe a second bit of dogma brought in later, which explains it away as a “Strict Mystery”. A Strict Mystery is one that is so mysterious, it’s impossible to understand unless you’re God (or an idiot). This, of course, makes no sense either, and doesn’t really explain anything at all even if you assume it’s true, but that’s okay, because it itself could be a Strict Mystery.

And they you have Limbo. Now Limbo is very confusing. It was widely publicised a bit ago that the latest Pope, who was a Nazi, abolished Limbo, the traditional resting place of unbaptised babies. This meant that all good Catholics who read this had to immediately stop believing in Limbo. But it had been publicised weeks before that he was going to do that, so what were Catholics supposed to believe in the meantime? But the worst part of this is that these reports aren’t true. In real life, the new Pope, who wasn’t really a Nazi, issued a Papal Bull to the effect that Limbo may or may not exist. The Vatican doesn’t know, because the Bible doesn’t say, and of course anything that the Bible doesn’t mention may or may not be true and you can’t prove it, because only the Bible is proof of anything. (You know, the Bible, or anything the Vatican says, because of Papal Infallibility, which was introduced by the Vatican in– hang on.)

But that’s the point: it’s all just rules. Rules don’t define morality. And as if proof were needed, here it is.

This blogger is rather understandably annoyed because not only did some bastard kill two employees of an abortion clinic in the name of his religious “morality”, but now there is a group of people who frankly are at least as bad intent on worshipping him as a hero and re-enacting the murders. And as if that wasn’t bad enough, we now have to put up with the Vatican asking all Catholics to boycott Amnesty International. Why? Because they think women should, in some situations, be allowed abortions.

(Now, far be it for me to apply common sense to any of this, but it would seem to me that if aborted foetuses go to Limbo, where they get “natural happiness”, that’s not so very bad. Frankly it’s probably better than most of them would get if they lived a normal life and God Judged them. Really, abortions are selfless acts, with one doctor accepting an eternity in Hell to save a load of foetuses.)

But more to the point, what may or may not happen to foetuses, or for that matter, people, after they die is something of a mystery. It’s really impossible to know, at least, not when you’re alive. What happens in Iraq to people very shortly before they die is a matter of well documented fact. And anyone who read the excellent article in the Times should know what happens in Guantanamo Bay. Amnesty fight these causes, and need money to do that, but the Vatican just mindlessly applies a bunch of rules it invented to everything, with no common sense or compromise or thought of any kind. They spot Amnesty going even slightly against one of those made-up rules and they immediately announce that all the extra suffering, totrure and killings it will cause don’t matter and that all that matters is that Catholics teach Amnesty that God is not to be fucked with. It shouldn’t need stating that boycotting a charity aimed at, and successful in, preserving and standing up for human rights, based on your flimsy interpretation of a book written centuries ago claiming to be the work of God is an utterly abhorrent way to behave. (The same applies to the whole condoms-are-bad-oh-no-AIDS debacle.)

This week, the same Pope has just made an announcement that non-Catholic churches are somehow “not proper churches”. This means, logically, that non-Catholic denominations of Christianity aren’t proper Christianity. Naturally, that’s what Catholics would believe anyway, at some level, so we’ve learned nothing from this but it has still made people angry. Why did he say that? What use was it? Sometimes I think hegoes looking for a fight.

I generally allow religion its follies because they are harmless and because it’s just easier that way. But a number of people who are very important to me are heavily involved in Amnesty, and a number of other people who are also very important to me are Catholics. So I’m rather forced to form an opinion. And my opinion, or rather, the plain simple fact of the matter, is that whether or not Amnesty is right, the Vatican is wrong. So here’s the deal: anybody who refuses to support Amnesty because it conflict with their Catholic beliefs is no longer my friend. It really is that simple. I’m not, as a rule, friends with people who behave abhorrently. If you find yourself in that category, do not attempt to change my mind. Attempt to change your own mind, because it is your mind which is defective. (Anybody who considers themselves a Catholic but finds themselves forced to disagree with things the Vatican says probably ought to take a long look and decide if they are then, by any reasonable definition, a Catholic, or just a Christian whose nearest church happens to be a Catholic one.)

But I’m not going to sit there in conversations any more and act as if this kind of thing is okay. The next person who tells me they are a Catholic is going to get asked if they support Amnesty. Because it’s the difference between “I like to wear white clothes and have bonfires” and “I am a member of the Klan”.


*First,define a set of the father, the son and the holy spirit. This has a cardinality of one. Then one-to-one map it directly to the set of Chipmunks (Alvin, Simon, Theodore) which has a cardinality of three. This proves one equals three. Apparently.

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Does Homeopathy Work?

July 13th, 2007

Lately I have been reading the internet differently. Usually I read a page and open all the interesting looking links in it in background tabs, then when I’ve finished I go through them one by one and read them. Today I didn’t do that. I started at one page, and hit an interesting link so I opened it on top and read that. Then another, and another, and at the end I went back and finished off the other pages. The end result was like reading a Billy Connolly routine.

But the deepest page in there was this video, because of course it had no links in it. The video is of a debate entitled “Does Homeopathy Work?”, and it features Doctors Ben Goldacre and Peter Fisher, a homeopath. And there were a few things that struck me, but the most striking thing was that while, in all, I think four people spoke at any length what I’d call ’strongly’ in favour of homeopathy, and all sounded very convincing, their arguments were all distinctly at odds with each other.

Once, Fisher was speaking out against the idea that homeopathists are against conventional medicine, but since he referred to it as “those nasty toxic drugs” I wouldn’t call it exactly ‘balanced’.

But my main problem with the arguments in the video is that they were largely contradictory. Fisher claimed there was “pretty incontrovertable” evidence that homeopathy did indeed work, but then another homeopathist, said the opposite (and utterly redefined homeopathy) by saying medicine was “one of the reasons why these kinds of trials that both parties tried to mention do not work, and it’s quite obvious, is … the homeopathic remedy is only homeopathic when it is used and has been shown to be effective”. No, that would be conventional medicine. You can’t say a clinical trial won’t work because your medicine can be shown to be effective. If that’s true then the clinical trial must work. Essentially, his argument was that (a) if the trial fails then by definition it wasn’t proper homeopathy anyway, and (b) a homeopathic medicine is specific to a patient; that rather than just saying “ah, you have condition X, you need remedy x“, you have to try things out until one works. “This,” he says, “is quite easily proved.” His proof is to ask homeopaths, and they will tell you that “they have had patients where they have prescribed remedies to them and they have not worked and they have reanalysed, reanalysed and perhaps again reanalysed the case, and eventually they’ve come up with the correct remedy, and that correct remedy has miraculously changed the patient.” This, to me, smells distincly of bad thinking: ill people either die or get better. That’s what happens to ill people. That’s how life works. So if you find ill people, and keep trying different ‘remedies’ on them, eventually most of them will get better. If you’re trying a different remedy every week then you’ll have to be trying one when they recover. Then you call that the “correct” remedy and announce your treatment a success. And if the patient dies? Well, they were proably going to die anyway and you obviously just didn’t find the right remedy in time. Can’t win ‘em all. But far more to the point, this goes directly against everything everyone else said, because he then said “so it isn’t the procedure of sitting in front of a homeopath for an hour and a half; it isn’t any other thing that you might think; it isn’t placebo; it is purely the correct substance being found which is homeopathic to the patient”. This got a round of applause, despite being directly opposite of what Dr Goldacre had said in his opening speech.

The video is a very good thing to watch for any scientists wondering if homepathy works. The homeopathists’ arguments convinced me they were all batshit insane.

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What Is Health Freedom?

July 13th, 2007

For the last couple of days (this is an old draft I’m just now posting so this time is wrong) I’ve been posting, or should I say embroiled, in a thread on the xkcd forums about alternative “medicine”. The thread was started by a user who is, for whatever reason, under the impression that only alterniative “medicine” can help his brother.

It starts with an email forward, which alerts us all to the “crisis in health freedom”, whatever “health freedom” might mean, which is supposedly being caused by someone called “the FDA”. This is wrong for a start; the US government’s body which regulated medicines consistently refers to itself simply as “FDA”. This is a pedantic point, but if you don’t even know the name of the body you’re protesting against, how can I expect you to understand thier policy?

So anyway, “the” FDA have this new draft guidance document. In a nutshell, it seeks to clarify what is and is not subject to FDA regulation, specifically relating to CAM, or “complimentary and alternative medicine”.

But no. According to the email forward, ‘by using the term “Medicine” rather than “Modality” for CAM practices, the FDA sets the stage so that anyone who is not a licensed physician is breaking the law by using these modalities since they are therefore “practicing medicine without a license.”’ What the hell is an “alternive modality”? Either this stuff is medicine, in which case is should be (and is — this document is a clarification of existing rules, not a change in legislation or policy) subject to the same rules and regulation as conventional medicine, or it isn’t, in which case, what the hell is it for?

“Conventional medicine” is my preferred term for the usual kind of treatments and drugs you’ll get from pharmacies and doctors. Some people favour the term “allopathic” medicine, which literally means the opposite of “homeopathic medicine” — in homeopathic ‘medicine’ you use a tiny amount (often, none) of a substance that would cause the symptoms being experiences, and in allopathic medicine you use a substance which would cause the opposite effect. I don’t like using the word “allopathic” to describe conventional medicine, though, because things like immunisations are, from a strictly etymological point of view, homeopathic. The term used in the email forward is “traditional medicine”. I think this is symptomatic of a wider problem — people, particularly in the US, are increasingly thinking of science as a tradition.

“Traditional” medicine really should be used to describe things like Chinese traditional ‘cures’ — which are really alternative “medicine”. Conventional medicine, on the other hand, is arrived at by a strict, objective scientific process (in theory; there are problems with this process’ implementation certainly, but they’re not massive problems in general, especially not when compared to the unregulated gibberish touted as medicines by these “alternative” quacks).

The email forward then goes on to explain that “THIS IS A HUGE ISSUE FOR PEOPLE WHOSE ATYPICAL BIOCHEMICAL NEEDS ARE NOT ADDRESSED OR EVEN ACKNOWLEDGED BY TRADITIONAL MEDICINE.” Now, call me a cynic if you like (I won’t mind; I am a cynic), but it seems to me that conventional medicine (whoever that is supposed to refer to — certainly there’s no central body of scientific consensus who arbitrate on these things; possibly it refers to FDA) would acknowledge anything that can be shown to exist in a clinical trial? And anything that can’t — surely doesn’t exist?

The problem, really, is that there’s a growing and alarming trend for “complimentary and alternative medicine” to be viewed as perfectly valid and effective even when it can’t be proven to work scientifically. The theory is that these things (homeopathy, acupuncture, crystal healing and what have you) are necessarily outside science, and science is the wrong tool to measure their effectiveness. This is bunk for a number of reasons, and hence needs debunking.

The first reason is that science is, as I’ve mentioned, not a tradition or a convention. It is simply any objective studies designed to test a hypothesis. Any and all hypotheses will do, as long as they make some measurable claim. A claim like “people who use this medicine will recover more than people who don’t” is clearly measureable, and yet whenever scientists try to measure it, they find the claim is false. There are two different conclusions that can be drawn from this. The people whose making a lot of money depends on people believing in these claims tend to draw the conclusion that science is therefore somehow inadequate to prove the claim. The second conclusion is that the claim is false. Occam’s Razor seems to suggest one of these options over the other. I’ll leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine which.

CAM advocates tend to argue in favour of the first on the grounds that conventional medicine is good for normal people, and CAM is good for certain people; people with “atypical biochemical needs” or people who have been failed by conventional medicine. This is really exactly the same ploy as teh anti-wifi crowd are using: trials don’t show an effect because only a tiny subset of people are affected. But this can be tested too, and routinely it isn’t. When they test for and prove this claim it will be accepted. Until then, it will be ridiculed. I do not believe that these “atypical biochemical needs” exist, except those people on the X Files born without some gland or other who have to harvest the appropriate bodyparts from other people.

To my mind, though, the far bigger problem with it is that conventional medicine is, by definition, medicine which is generally agreed by scientists and doctors to work, and alternative medicine is, again by definition, anything else. That is, anything which it is not generally agreed by suitably qualified boffins to work. As such, if you say alternative “medicines” exist somehow “outside” science and don’t need scientific proof to be sold, then anything which is not proven need not be proven, and the only things that need proof by definition already have it. Clearly that’s stupid and unworkable; pharmacology companies could sidestep FDA completely simply by saying “oh, it’s alternative”.

For their part, FDA have extremely wisely decided that the simplest and best way out of the problem is to make no legal distinction between conventional and alternative medicines. That levels the playing field and surely nobody can complain about that?

Well no, they can’t, but they do. This page allows, indeed encourages, users to send the following message to FDA (who are still gathering puclic comments on their new draft guidance document):

I assert my fundamental right to control my own health and health care. I want Complementary and Alternative Modalities (”CAM”) to be freely available and I endorse the comments of the Natural Solutions Foundation which were submitted on April 6, 2006 and which follow

There’s quite a lot of comments, so I’m going to trim them somewhat and make fun of the amusing parts, such as the name of the correspondants in question.

These comments are submitted by Major General Albert N. Stubblebine, Rima Laibow, MD and Ralph Fucetola, JD–

Hahaha. Stubblebine! I don’t even know if I believe that’s a real name. (I looked him up on Google, and apparently famous nutcase and HIV-denialist Dr Rath is angry at him for intimidating my younger brother. Bastard.)

–on behalf of Natural Solutions Foundation with regard to the Food and Drug Administration’s draft “Guidance for Industry on Complementary and Alternative Medicine Products and Their Regulation by the Food and Drug Administration.” They are submitted with reference to the request of FDA for comments on the proposed Guidance stated at: http://www.fda.gov/OHRMS/DOCKETS/98fr/E7-3259.htm.

The Natural Solutions Foundation is a tax exempt, recognized nongovernmental organization active in the United States and internationally, communicating Natural Solutions to the many health problems caused by government intervention, with emphasis on FDA and Codex Alimentarius over-regulation of natural foods and supplements.

Complementary and Alternative Modalities (CAM), including traditional remedies and nutrition to achieve and maintain a healthy status, are preferred by many Americans to so-called “standard” allopathic medical treatment, primarily due to the well-documented iatrogenic death and disabilities, the dangerous side effects and persistent failures of the so-called “standard” model. The Dietary Supplement and Natural Remedies market has grown to over $28 billion dollars annually as Americans consistently vote with their dollars choosing CAM products out of un-reimbursed funds.

Here, Major Stubblebine (hehe) puts the term “standard” in inverted commas, to imply that it is a sham. I did this earlier when I put the word “medicine” in inverted commas wherever it was preceded by the term “alternative”. See, I can use punctuation to make a point, too. In any case, the “persistent failures” of the “so-called standard model” (such as, presumably, the location of that damn elusive Higgs boson) are utterly irrelevant to the worth or otherwise of any alternative model. They are subject to the same rules. If standard practices can be shown not to work they are banned. This happens relatively often. Similarly, if ‘alternative’ practices can be shown to work, they are allowed, and adopted as standard.

The fact that “the Dietary Supplement and Natural Remedies market has grown to over $28 billion dollars annually as Americans consistently vote with their dollars choosing CAM products out of un-reimbursed funds” is also, you may notice, part of my argument for the guidance document: these companies are (according to FDA’s definitions in the link above), commiting “health fraud” if their remedies don’t work, to the tune of $28 billion a year. That’s surely worse than commiting health fraud for less money?

The Foundation urges the FDA to take into account an important legal distinction that FDA appears to ignore totally in the draft Guidance. That distinction is between “treatment of disease” and “therapies that may benefit.” In keeping with that distinction, explained below, it is suggested that the Guidance be titled, “Guidance for Industry on Complementary and Alternative Modality Products and Their Regulation by the Food and Drug Administration.” CAM is not “medicine”, does not rest in medical models and allopathic methods and does not seek to be considered “medicine.” In fact, CAM seeks to shed the appearance of “medicine” which is not in keeping with CAM traditions and activities. … The terms “treat” and “treatment of disease” are, in fact, antithetical to CAM therapies.

Then in what sense are they “therapies”? Well…

CAM health practices can be generally defined as traditional or other practices that are used by individuals, often for self-help, to achieve and maintain a healthy status, either on their own or complementary to standard medical care. These practices do not include the potentially dangerous use of invasive techniques and toxic drugs that are the sole province of licensed medicine. They do, however, include developing therapies and nonstandard approaches that are outside the scope of licensed medicine. Such approaches as Nutrition, Homeopathy, Hands-on-Healing, Magnetics, Sound Health, Energy Therapies, Biofeedback, Meditation, Breath Work, Reiki, Chi Gong, Tai Chi and Herbology are examples of complementary and alternative therapeutic practices. Traditional Chinese, Ayurvedic medicine or folk remedies and “Dr. Mom” home remedies are also examples of CAM practices. These practices aim, in the words of the late Philip J. Hodes, PhD., at “more efficient physiological integration and function of the human organism, leading to optimal wellness.” This definition is the polar opposite of non CAM practices which seek to suppress or ameliorate symptoms without an approach to optimal wellness.

You see, here, Major Stubblebine (hoho) is saying that–

Well, we’ll get on to that later. First let me point out that he is so certifiably insane he’s actually capitalising “nutrition”, listing it as an alternative “modality”, and then stands it along side such gibberish as Reiki, homeopathy, and “magnetics“. Nutrition is a science, not some piece of hokum quackery. It’s only weirdos like Patrick Holford and “Dr” Gillian McKieth who try to capitalise (on) it.

Now, where was I? Ah, yes. His point, it appears, if we leave aside the fact that every single “modality” he lists is patent rubbish or a bizarre pseudo-magical ‘formalisation’ of some well-established scientific principle (such as “eat well” or “breathe”), is that CAM is not designed to cure disease but to just make you more “well” in some kind of wishy-washy general sense. There are two problems with this. The first is that “optimal wellness” isn’t a thing. It doesn’t exist. It’s just a couple of words, one of which is practically made up and the other of which is effectively a truism, strung together to create the illusion of meaning. (I think it was Scott Adams who defined it as “the slowest possible rate at which you can die”.) In fact, pretty much the whole of Hodes’ quotation is gibberish. The second problem is that these therapies don’t promote anything like “optimal wellness”. Magnetics do nothing. Homeopathy does nothing. Biofeedback is a made up word. Energy Therapies are pure pseudoscience. Some of them are even damaging.

But the biggest problem is that “promoting optimal wellness” is still a measurable claim. I can quite easily design a test to examine it. You take a group of people, and divide them into groups. Give each group a different “modality” of “therapy”, some CAM and some conventional, such as sound dietry advice (which is different to “Nutrition” in that ‘dietician’ is a protected title and to call yourself one requires a qualification, whereas anyone can call themselves a ‘nutritionist’ with no fear of legal recourse) or some decent exercise, then you test them and see whose health improved most. We can measure health in a number of ways, and should use as many as possible for this experiment. That would, if your claims are true, validate them and then FDA would leave you alone. This remains true whether you choose to call it a “treatment” or a “therapy”.

We have analyzed the word “therapy” and the similar word “therapeutic” because these words are not forbidden by DSHEA and are referenced by the AMA Ethics Code. We recommend “Therapeutic Nutritionals” for alternative practices centered on Nutrition. We recommend the use of the qualifying word, “Nutritional” in this context to make it completely clear that the practitioner is not offering “treatment of disease.”

You see, again, this is what I mean. Regardless of legal standpoint, if you heard the phrase “therapeutic nutritionals”, what would you think? Let’s assume for now that you are sufficiently naïve to think that whatever it is, it’s a legitimate practice. Personally, I would see the word “therapeutic” and equate that with some kind of medical treatment. Then I would see the word “nutrition” and equate that to diet. It looks like they’re promising to make me less ill by changing my diet. That’s science, then, surely?

No. Because the claim is that because in law the science of food is referred to as “diet” and not “nutrition”, and the curing or controlling of disease is referred to as “treatment” rather than “therapy”, any other words they might use to describe it are fair game. FDA, on the other hand, consider that anything marketed as providing health benefits must provide health benefits. I agree with FDA, because they’re right.

This next paragraph is important, I think:

The claims made for Therapeutic Nutritionals must, of course, be allowed Structure and Function Claims. Thus, for example, under current law as interpreted by the FDA, one cannot claim that a nutrient lowers cholesterol levels – since there is now a “disease” of hypercholesterolemia – but can claim that a nutrient maintains normal cholesterol levels for persons with normal cholesterol. A purveyor may say that a certain combination of multivitamins was designed to maintain normal structure and function for a person with diabetes, but not that the combination “treats” diabetes or affects the blood sugar level. Similarly, any Health Claim made for any alternative practice must meet the FTC standard of “truthful and not misleading” and must be based on standard commercial substantiation criteria.

CAM products are intended to benefit normal structure and function and are not prescribed as treatment for medical or psychological conditions, nor for diagnosis, care, treatment or rehabilitation of individuals, nor to apply medical, mental health or human development principles.”

So his theory now is that if you’re saying “I can cure a disease” then by all means FDA should intervene and make sure you actually can, but if you’re saying “I can prevent a disease” then FDA should back off. This is interesting, and probably the result of the fact that Stubblebine (haha) doesn’t work in CAM. CAM is a huge industry with two markets. The larger market is healthy people, but the smaller market of people with incurable diseases is far easier to sell to — presumably this is why “Dr” Rath hates him so much.

As the High Court said in Thompson, “We have previously rejected the notion that the Government has an interest in preventing the dissemination of truthful commercial information in order to prevent members of the public from making bad decisions with the information. * * * Even if the Government did argue that it had an interest in preventing misleading advertisements, this interest could be satisfied by the far less restrictive alternative of requiring … a warning…”

What is the proper level of substantiation for CAM nutrient or health claims? It is not the “significant scientific agreement” required of drug claims, but rather, the general “competent scientific evidence” standard that applies to all commercial claims. That does not imply that purveyors need to have multiple double-blind experiments (as may be required for drug approval). Substantiation merely needs to be competent and scientific. We urge this to include research studies (which is when scientists review the work of others and apply it to specific questions) and clinical trials (which may be as formal as double-blind, placebo controlled investigations but need not be, since multiple variables, like those involved in CAM practices designed to promote optimal health, are not well studied by double-blind, placebo controlled investigations) as well as traditional knowledge, clinical case studies, observational reports and clinical experience. All of these sources of information and experience have a role to play, but ultimately, such substantiation must rest on the informed professional opinion of some credentialed or appropriately experienced person who can (in the case of Dietary Supplements, for example) sign onto the Structure and Function Claims Notice to the FDA, attesting that “the notifying firm has substantiation that the Statement to which this Notice applies is truthful and not misleading.” (Regulations under 21 U.S.C. 403(r) (6)).

The Natural Solutions Foundation favors a market approach to these issues and urges the FDA to reduce regulation to those minimum levels that will encourage the continued rapid development of CAM approaches. Especially when dealing with Dietary Supplements and Traditional Remedies, we are dealing with foods which, as foods, are presumed to be safe. There is no need for the high level of regulation that is required for the dangerous and invasive drugs and techniques of so-called “standard” medicine. Even with this stringent level of oversight, drugs are a major cause of death in every developed country while CAM remedies are an insignificant-to-absent cause of death world-wide. Rather, this is a situation where the public is best served by a policy of Laissez-Faire: allow CAM to develop freely in the public interest.

This is a very confusing bit of writing to me. He appears to be confusing two very distinct arguments: first, that CAM isn’t really medicine and shouldn’t be subject to the strict checks medicine is (”What is the proper level of substantiation for CAM nutrient or health claims? It is not the “significant scientific agreement” required of drug claims, but rather, the general “competent scientific evidence” standard that applies to all commercial claims.”), and secondly that conventional medicine isn’t really that good either (”…the dangerous and invasive drugs and techniques of so-called “standard” medicine. Even with this stringent level of oversight, drugs are a major cause of death in every developed country while CAM remedies are an insignificant-to-absent cause of death world-wide”). These are surely almost mutually exclusive arguments? If conventional medicine isn’t that great, then surely it would be easy for CAM to pass its tests, and if CAM isn’t medicine, then why attack medicine at all? I mean, car accidents are a significant cause of death in developed countries. Is that relevant?

In fact, you could construct these distinct claims into one coherent argument if you said “conventional medicine, for all its achievements, is generally a last-ditch effort to recover once you are already ill, whereas our aim is to prevent the illness to begin with by keeping you healthy. Ill people are in a vulnerable state and anything they do to their bodies to recover should be thoroughly tested, whereas healthy people require less strict controls as their bodies are in a position to fight back against any potentially harmful side effects”. This argument, though, is still flawed, because you are still making a lot of money selling things of unproven worth to people by claiming they are effective, quite without evidence.

If you say your product can help maintain a healthy cholesterol level, then you should be expected to prove it.

“The state has not restricted the cure of the body to the practice of medicine and surgery — allopathy, as it is termed, — nor required that, before anyone can be treated for any bodily ill, the physician must have acquired a competent knowledge of allopathy and be licensed by those skilled therein. To do that would be to limit progress by establishing allopathy as the state system of healing, and forbidding all others. This would be as foreign to our system as a state church for the cure of souls. All the state has done has been to enact that, when one wished to practice medicine or surgery, he must, as a protection to the public [not to the doctor], be examined and licensed by those skilled in surgery and medicine. To restrict all healing to that one kind — to allopathy, excluding homeopathy, osteopathy, and all other treatments — might be a protection to doctors in surgery and medicine; but that is not the object of the act, and might make it unconstitutional, because creating a monopoly.” North Carolina’s Supreme Court in State v MacKinght, 42 S.E. 580, 1902 at p 582.

“Because creating a monopoly”? That’s gibberish — I expect Supreme Courts to have a better grasp of grammar than that. This is supposed to be legally binding precedent! It has to make sense or what use is it?

Anyway, the point is that the latest FDA guidance document is exactly inkeeping with the spirit of what the court said — they have “not restricted the cure of the body to … allopathy”; they have specifically drawn no distinction between “allopathy, … homeopathy, osteopathy, and all other treatments”. You can’t discriminate against something without first recognising that it is different.

Costs, safety and, most of all, liberty, require that the distinction be made and maintained by the FDA between “treatment” and “therapy” if the US Constitution and public are to be served.

Your liberty to be scammed out of money is all that is at stake here. Relinquish it with glee.

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iGoogle’s video reccomendation system keeps offering me episodes of Peep Show. Which is fair enough; I love the show and Google don’t know I have the DVDs. But it is reccomending them “because [I] searched for bus timetable 12 leeds.” If I weren’t so level-headed I would worry that that was a fake reason.

Also, for some reason, it appears to be starting at the end of series three and working backwards.

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Postcard From Denmark

July 11th, 2007

Danish Photography

Here are some photos I took in Denmark recently. Denmark is very expensive. They are here, as much as anything, to try out Google Web Albums, or whatever it’s called these days.

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Baby doctor cleared of misconduct

In many ways, not the story I was hoping for.

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